October 2025 Transportation Market Update
Freight Volumes Stay Soft, Reefer Heats Up Heading into Q4
As we move into the final quarter of 2025, the transportation market remains steady but subdued. Freight volumes are under pressure, capacity remains widely available, and only a few sectors, like refrigerated freight, are showing meaningful seasonal momentum.
For 3PLs navigating contract commitments, customer service expectations, and real-time routing decisions, staying ahead of market trends is critical. Here’s what we’re seeing across the major modes.
Overall Freight Trends: Volumes Down, Costs Flat
Freight demand remains softer than normal, with no significant price surges on the horizon. While costs are holding steady, the volume decline tells the bigger story.
Key insights:
- The Cass Shipments Index is down 9.3% year-over-year through August, confirming ongoing demand softness.
- Total freight expenditures are flat, as weaker volumes are offset by a modal shift back toward truckload.
- Truckload linehaul rates are up 1.2% year-over-year, reflecting modest rate stability rather than growth.
What this means: Shippers and brokers have room to negotiate, and the current market favors service-focused, cost-efficient logistics strategies.
Dry Van Market: Stable with Soft Demand
Dry van freight remains calm. High contract compliance and soft demand continue to limit spot market volatility.
Market highlights:
- Tender acceptance rates are high, keeping freight out of the spot market.
- Spot rates remain volatile week to week but show no sustained upward momentum.
- Contract rates are flat across most lanes.
- Capacity is broadly available, especially in core consumer goods and retail lanes.
3PL Strategy: Use the current market to strengthen carrier partnerships and lock in rates through year-end.
Reefer Market: Seasonal Strength in Key Regions
The refrigerated freight sector is showing strength heading into the holiday season. Demand for produce and perishables is driving regional rate increases and tightening capacity.
Key trends:
- Load-to-truck ratios are tightening in key markets like the Pacific Northwest and Texas.
- National spot rates are rising modestly, tracking with seasonal demand.
- Carrier margins have compressed slightly from 13.1% in Q2 to 12.3% in Q3, as costs rise and competition intensifies.
3PL Strategy: Expect continued reefer demand through Thanksgiving. Prioritize early booking and stay flexible in high-demand zones.
Flatbed Market: Lane-Specific Tightness, No Broad Rebound
Flatbed freight remains unpredictable and tied to localized industrial activity. There are signs of regional tightness, but no nationwide recovery.
Flatbed insights:
- Demand is driven by project freight and remains lane-specific.
- Spot rates are down about 1% week-over-week according to recent DAT reports.
- Capacity remains available nationally, with some isolated constraints.
3PL Strategy: Monitor project-heavy lanes closely. Spot volume may rise on short notice in infrastructure or energy-related corridors.
Q3 Recap & Q4 Outlook
The third quarter brought modest rate stability in truckload and a seasonal lift in refrigerated freight. Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to remain balanced unless impacted by weather events or fuel price volatility.
Mode-by-mode summary:
- Dry van: Stable rates, high tender compliance, soft demand.
- Reefer: Strong seasonal volumes, tighter capacity through Thanksgiving.
- Flatbed: Localized movement tied to industrial freight, few national trends.
- Imports: Volumes have stabilized post-tariff and should remain steady into year-end.
What to watch: Weather-related disruptions, energy prices, and last-mile surges could still shift dynamics late in the quarter.
What 3PLs Should Focus On This Month
For 3PLs, the current market offers a chance to fine-tune operations while avoiding the chaos of peak volatility.
Suggested focus areas:
- Leverage dry van availability to reduce costs and improve service levels.
- Prepare for increased reefer demand, especially around perishable holiday freight.
- Monitor heavy-haul and project freight for flatbed planning.
- Take advantage of digital tracking tools to reduce check calls and improve visibility.
Reminder: Our “Track Your Load” feature, powered by Mcleod, is now live on our homepage. If you have an active shipment with us, you can view real-time updates in seconds.
Stay Informed
This is part of our ongoing commitment to keeping our partners informed with accurate, timely freight updates. Stay tuned for our November 2025 Market Brief, and let us know if there’s a specific topic or trend you’d like us to cover next.
